Hi Pedro; the 500 is a wrap till tomorrow so I thought I'd respond to your points;
1. You're right he's not the only smart person around. There's a lot of extremely competent and qualified men and women working on the problem that have developed viable products that I'm sure will be successful.
But IMO and in the opinion of electronics/software engineers I consider brilliant, this man is in an elite group of less than 4 or 5 people worldwide with comparable abilities. All I'm saying is what I know of his reputation through friends/business acquaintances and what I know of his kudos, it is illogical to discount the possibility his product will be among the best.
2. You're right there's onlly 2 1/2 years left, but you should be telling that to the CEO's , CFO's, and CIO's of the 75% to 80% of the companies that haven't addressed their problems yet. My point is that most of the potential customers haven't awoken to their problem. Zitel/MD must be ready when they are. I believe as Jack King predicted that will be around July-August-September area.
3. Will they live up to their market cap? Who knows. I do believe that one day it's p/e ratio will come back down to earth, but IMO that day is a long way off. The valuation of these companies has no relationship to reality, it comes from a combination of hopes, expectations, fear, unknown, not fact. This is typical of the anxiety that preceedes the unknown. Whether real or imagined when you have congressman writing letters to the president, you can bet your bagels enforcement, standardization, is coming. If the boys at the top believe this has to be done then everyone down the foodchain will have to conform or do business elsewhere. IMO that's part of what makes this situation incredible. Apparently universal belief in the existence of a problem that MUST be fixed in a limited period of time. This is going to be a dream come true for some(Y2K companies) and a night mare for others ( Y2K customers).
4. Everything is taking too long, including Nevada. I was ready for this baby to take off back on January 6. But it didn't. They've had problems (obviously with Titow leaving) , nothing is happening as quickly as they suggested OR as quickly as we wanted. But to quote Murphy, every job will take twice as long as you expect and be half as lucrative AND nothing is impossible for the person who doesn't have to do it. And frankly as long as Marlene Lockard isn't bitching how can we?
Dave Stewart aside, let's remember James Brady, Bill Esping, Ken Titow, Kevin Schick, Arthur Chait and a host of other talented, successful people whose abilities are in high demand have either joined forces with or stated belief in MD's ability to deliver the best of the best. That's what I'm betting on. If it happens I'll watch the stock skyrocket and bail out at some point before reality sets in i.e. market cap, p/e, etc. That's the gameplan. We'll see what happens.
You have yourself a great weekend.
DD |
