Ray, you still are focusing on the present
stocks do not
in the nearterm, expectation of a Fed response to current conditions will likely bring about a bear market reflex rally
if you think I see all as rosy, check my post from last night
a serious finance liquidity crunch is underway
Message 14706929
higher energy costs are hurting many, esp up north and for truckers
no question about it
that is the present
do you think next late summer, fuel prices will be as high?
I doubt it, and that is what oil company stocks are pricing now
you dont see a beacon phenomenon over the horizon
neither do I
perhaps B2B will be much bigger than we expect
perhaps telecom, wireless, fiberoptic will continue to charge ahead
perhaps demand for broadband will grow steadily
and best of all
perhaps the Fed will ease twice before July 2001, like Angell believes
he used to be a Fed governor
he is no dork, and he knows how Greenjeans operates
heck, he can probably talk in Greenie's queer language
can you remember autumn of 1998?
things looked incredibly bleak
that marked the beginning of a huge stock rally
we can agree to disagree, sure
I am looking out 6-9 months
you are looking at the immediate future
that is where we differ
I see current conditions deteriorating, just like you
here is a question that drives my point indirectly
check the chart for Exxon Mobil (XOM)
if oil prices are so high, with margins robust...
why is this stock declining?
because crude oil and gas pump prices are coming down
SOOOON
another:
banks are feeling some serious pain, for sure
check the chart of Chase Manhattan Bank (CMB)
their loan portfolios are showing some red
but bank stocks are starting to recover
why is this?
because the financial liquidity strain will find relief
SOOOON
respectfully
/ Jim |
