Rich, I think that part of the stall at $52 are short (those that wanted to short before but saw the price collapse and prayed, if it ever come back...., and those that successfully covered in the low $40'. There are a number of rationales that the shorts have which have their own merit. Many of these have been published on this thread in the past. For instance, some think that RMBS's earning royalties is "unamerican' and thus eventually the bu$$ will be "punished".
Others believe that the technology is obvious from the prior art, and thus the German courts will throw the patents out and invalidate them, opening the door to invalidation in the US.
Yet other shorts, believe that RMBS' participation in JEDEC for a short time is sufficient cause to cause the court to render a judgement similar to that landed on Dell.
Others yet, believe that the semi cycle is peaking and thus in lieu of $40 B in DRAM per year over the next two years, we may be stuck at anywhere between $20 to $30 B (reducing revenues for the bu$$ accordingly).
Yet other are asking, so what? this technology might be good for five years, and what next? With "peak revenues of maybe $6/share and after that a decline, why pay more than 5 times these future earnings.
I could list another ten "arguments" why some very smart investors will find the bu$$ a "smart short". Personally, I think they err.
Zeev |
