Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (77779)	11/3/2000 12:00:16 AM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (3) of 95453

I think the caution on energy stocks reflects a widespread belief (whether right or wrong) that oil prices will drop sharply next year They are probably right, George. History, futures markets and conventional wisdom say we probably will see a significant decline. But what, 25% to $25 or sliced in half to below $20? I think the first scenario is much more likely and that is a level at which the entire industry has historically been very profitable. In the spring of 1999, the patch thought $25 oil would be nirvana. I think the OPEC price band mechanism could keep oil above $22 for many years to come and that would be good news for OS. A retreat into the 20's would take oil off the front pages and would be a net plus. Those "sound bite" articles make analysts seem so superficial. I really doubt that their thinking is that simplistic. John

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