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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve
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To: Cisco who started this subject11/3/2000 12:57:52 AM
From: TraderGreg  Read Replies (1) of 6710
 
My Current neutral estimation(SIs fixed font doesn't work well with Excel spreadsheets):
DISTRIBUTION OF '00 ELECTORAL VOTE
51 # STATES 25 13 13 0 0 11/3/00
ELEC PROJECTIONS ACTUAL Point Estimate BUSH
VOTES STATE BUSH GORE in play BUSH GORE Prob BUSH 0.5960
538 198 161 179 0 0 Prob GORE 0.3896
Prob TIE 0.0144
THIS IS A NEUTRAL ESTIMATION !!!
32 Texas 32 ODDS ARE 3 TO 2 IN
14 No Car 14 FAVOR OF BUSH
13 Virg 13 95%Confidence Interval
13 Georgia 13 Bush Range 228 327
12 Indiana 12 Gore Range 211 310
9 Alabama 9 BUSH GORE
9 Louisna 9 TOTAL 276.3 261.7
8 Arizona 8
8 Okla 8
8 So Car 8 LOCK 198 161
8 Kent 8 SUBTOT 198 161
8 Colo 8
7 Miss 7 NEEDS 72 109
6 Kansas 6
6 Ark 6 PROBABILISTIC DISTRIBUTION
5 Nebr 5 BUSH GORE
5 Utah 5 LOCK 198.0 161.0
4 Idaho 4
4 Nevada 4 IN PLAY 78.3 100.7
4 Maine 4
3 Alaska 3
3 No Dak 3
3 Wyoming 3 Lock states given to each candidate even if they are
3 So Dak 3 not locked yet. This analysis simplifies the race to
3 Montana 3 no more than THIRTEEN critical states that are near tossups.
54 Calif 54 If more than 13, analyze the 13 with the most elec votes.
33 NewYork 33 Electoral College "TIE" will
15 New Jersey 15 occur if Gore's "in play" = 108
12 Mass 12
10 Maryland 10 179 78.28 100.72
8 Connecticut 8 IN PLAY P(BUSH) P(GORE)
7 Iowa 7
5 New Mexico 5
4 Hawaii 4
4 Rhode Island 4
3 Vermont 3
3 DC 3
3 Delaware 3
25 Florida 25 0.41 0.59
23 Pennsylvania 23 0.50 0.50
22 Illinois 22 0.19 0.81
21 Ohio 21 0.67 0.33
18 Michigan 18 0.25 0.75
11 Tennessee 11 0.75 0.25
11 Washington 11 0.33 0.67
11 Missouri 11 0.75 0.25
11 Wisconsin 11 0.25 0.75
10 Minnesota 10 0.29 0.71
7 Oregon 7 0.50 0.50
5 West Virginia 5 0.50 0.50
4 New Hampshire 4 0.50 0.50
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