Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 220.17

-6.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (39102)	11/3/2000 6:43:53 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Gottfried - I recall similarly comforting posts following Klic's August deferral announcement. At that time, Klic indeed tanked while the rest of the sector was stable. Then a curious thing happened: since the end of September (and probably quite a bit longer), Klic has far outperformed Amat, Klac, Ter etc. (my Hubris-SEM portfolio). The undeniable fact is that order deferrals at Klic have nothing to with Klic per se. With Klic's very short lead time, these deferrals are the earliest and most direct indicator of the state of the sector for the immediate future. The events of 3 months ago are strikingly similar to the current situation. I believe, however, that the SEM stocks are so heavily discounted going into this news that the effect may be significantly muted. In fact, it would not be surprising to see Klic recover by the end of the day (after all, it's trading at a PE = ~5)

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