Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 231.49

+2.8%

1:04 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (39115)	11/3/2000 12:43:57 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Cary, Sorry, but I disagree with you. First, "slowing or declining orders" are different than deferrals or pushouts. You talk about new orders, KLIC talks about change of old orders. Second, 50% Q revenue decline is high even for KLIC. Third, yes it could be "wait for front end installation then buy back end" blip, but it may be also "stop buildup, too much current capacity" situation. There is no clear indication of which one is the case. Fourth, I would claim that chip demand visibility is still very low. However - and I think here you, I and Scott agree - current semi-equip prices are low enough to start some positions even if the slowdown hits full scale. Finally, I think that reading AMAT thread is rather useless. Thread predictions are as bad as those of the analysts or industry sources. And that's not because of the posters qualifications. Thread has great minds at work. The chip + equip demand is simply unpredictable. Information waterfall only adds to confusion and irrational decisions. The best plan in semi-equips is to have buy target levels and buy. Then have sell target levels and sell. Information be damned. I think that's what you did successfully last time. Good luck Jurgis

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