"GORE RULES NORTH OF THE BORDER"
Michael Adams and Derek Leebosh
National Post
Most U.S. polls give Governor George W. Bush a narrow three-point lead among likely U.S. voters over Vice-President Al Gore in the week before next Tuesday's election. Even in states where Mr. Gore is leading, this
lead is narrow. But if the Vice-President is in need of some good news as the big day approaches, he can take heart that he enjoys a commanding lead north of the border.
Environics recently asked Canadians who they would like to see win the upcoming U.S. election. We found the citizens of this country prefer Mr. Gore over Mr. Bush by a landslide -- 48% to 29%. Mr. Gore has a substantial lead in all Canada's major regions: in Atlantic Canada 45% to 33%; in Quebec 45% to 29%; in Conservative Premier Mike Harris' Ontario a whopping 55% to 22%. Even in the Western bastion of
Canada's right-of-centre Canadian Alliance, Mr. Gore leads his competitor 43% to 35%.
Parsing the numbers further shows that older Canadians, those with post-secondary educations, and those with higher incomes most heavily favour the Democrats. University graduates favour Mr. Gore by a massive majority of 63% to 19%. The only demographic category in Canada that tilts toward Mr. Bush are Canadians with less than a high school education. While current U.S. polls show Mr. Bush with a
double-digit lead over Mr. Gore among men, there is no gender gap in Canada: he is as popular with men (49%) as with women (47%).
Given the ideological reputations of the parties on both sides of the border, it is not surprising that supporters of the NDP, Liberal and Bloc Québécois parties overwhelmingly favour Mr. Gore. And yet even supporters of the Alliance, the party most closely associated with a Republican-style agenda, narrowly favour the Vice-President. The only
supporters to back Mr. Bush are federal Progressive Conservatives.
Unlike previous Environics polls of this kind, there is no incumbent in this year's presidential election, so we can take these results as being a truer measure of Canadians' ideological and policy preferences. The pronounced tilt toward the Democrats has existed for a very long time; at least since the Great Depression and Franklin D. Roosevelt. It was reinforced in the 1960s, when John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson initiated civil rights reforms and massive social spending. Even "New" Democrat President Bill Clinton has been seen as representing a more humane and liberal face of America than his opponents on the right.
Polls showed Canadians to be less judgmental and more forgiving of Mr. Clinton's personal indiscretions than his American compatriots (but of course we had had the benefit of 25 years of Pierre Trudeau's presence in our public life).
Republicans, on the other hand, represent what is exceptional about America: opposition to "big government," a strident belief in individualism and "the American Dream," flag-waving patriotism; more recently embracing the tenets of fundamentalist Christianity with its support for the right to bear arms and capital punishment and opposition to abortion. Canadians, like our European cousins, are much
more "liberal" on these issues than Americans and therefore typically find themselves in opposition to the party that champions the values we find the most threatening.
That the most educated Canadians hold these views is remarkable: These are the Canadians most likely to travel in the United States, to have friends in the United States, to do business and have investments in the United States. These are the people most likely to personally benefit from the policies of George Bush.
If there are any practical implications of these results, it could be that Canadian nationalists who worry about Canada becoming the 51st state can sleep easy. Republicans would never welcome a new state with 60 or more electoral votes that demonstrates such a clear affection for their rivals.
HOW CANADIANS WOULD VOTE IN THE U.S. ELECTION:
TOTAL Al Gore 48%
George W. Bush 29%
DK / NA / Neither 21%
NDP SUPPORTERS
Al Gore 52%
George W. Bush 22%
DK / NA / Neither 24%
LIBERAL SUPPORTERS
Al Gore 57%
George W. Bush 25%
DK / NA / Neither 17%
BLOC QUEBECOIS SUPPORTERS
Al Gore 48%
George W. Bush 25%
DK / NA / Neither 25%
PC SUPPORTERS
Al Gore 41%
George W. Bush 46%
DK / NA / Neither 12%
CANADIAN ALLIANCE SUPPORTERS
Al Gore 44%
George W. Bush 39%
DK / NA / Neither 16%
Source: Environics Research, National Post
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