P4/PIII Mkt Share 2001
Re: Otellini forecast that P4 will surpass PIII market share in 2001.
My first assumption is that he is referring to revenues, not units.
My second assumption is that he is referring to run rates going out of the year.
While one can only guess how this converts to units in 2001, my guess is that ~10% to 15% of Intel CPU's shipped in 2001 will be P4. (I built a WAG model based on Xeon, P4, PIII and Celeron by segment and share. [Servers, Work Stations, Desk Top and Mobile]. Interesting that it generates a CPU ASP of $206 for the year).
In terms of units, I think PIII will outship P4 >3:1 next year. Also, Celeron will maintain major share of the low end and mobile segments, (although we'll see PIII migrate further down into those segments).
This is pure speculation, of course, but it brings up an interesting thought.
Assuming that SDRAM will have the major share in 2001, (I still believe ~80%), what are the royalties on SDRAM?
There has been much discussion of DDR having higher royalty than RDRAM, but I haven't seen any estimates of royalty on SDRAM. If SDRAM has major DRAM share in 2001, this may have major bearing on Rambus revenues.
JMHO's |
