Phil, I share your concern, but biotechs generally have been doing badly. The recent recovery is welcome.
There is an article in this week's Economist which might not be very helpful to the stock price. It suggests that the original statistics were 'unnecessarily gloomy' concerning the probability of developing cancer associated with the BRCA genes. The figures were 85% for the chance of getting breast cancer before the age of 70, and 60% for ovarian; this to be compared with 8% and 2% respectively for the general population. New research suggests the numbers for those with the gene are 56% and 16% . Another showed that fewer than 10% at high-risk because of their own, or their families, medical histories carried a BRCA1 gene.
I think the last figure should increase demand for the test because it might provide relief. Female relatives of a woman with breast cancer are assumed to be at higher risk than those who haven't. If the woman with cancer has the gene, that probably contributed to her cancer, and it increases the chances of her sisters and daughters contracting it to 34% ((56+8)/2). Testing those relatives can resolve whether they risk breast cancer at the 56% or the 8% level. Personally, I would like to know to which class I belonged.
Another point the Economist made is: what do you do if you do carry the gene(s)? This is particularly acute because the genes seem to be associated with defective DNA repair. If so, mammograms might carry much greater risk for those carrying the genes than the general population. This, too, can be turned around, in that it suggests that perhaps women might adopt different choices based on whether or not they carry BRCA genes. It would be better, of course, if there were a treatment for the repair of those genes, and this is being worked on. MYGN would be in for royalties if a treatment were found by another company.
Ps.
Andrew, i am sorry for not answering your question earlier. you will see from above (i hope) that this already a test, or rather, a suite of tests. MYGN charges $2500 a time. They have also received some money from some big-pharma (I think) who are also working on therapy. More royalties will be forthcoming if the pharma get a treatment. ( I'm hazy on this, perhaps someone will confirm or deny?) |
