Gerge, I agree with you about the danger in the current area. I have the 3450 to 3650 area a a "distribution" area.
For the next 8 to 10 weeks, my scenario is more or less as follows: Rally continuing for another week, maybe two, target on the naz around 3650. By the end of November we have peaked, again, and go into a turbulent downturn into early December (some tax loss selling might help that move), about a 500 Naz points decline to the 3100 to 3200 area. Late in december, seasonal patterns take hold, and we have a very strong year end run coupled with a strong one or two weeks in January, culminating with a top (I have 3930 for that top, as I write) in the first or second week in January. The we start a sickening drop that could last to the middle of March, and I currently have a breach of 3000, and possibly a test of around 2500, induced, in part, by recognition that Asia is indeed, once more, going down hard. This is of course just a broad picture and exogeneous event will modify this scenario. Of course, the turnips reserve the right to be wrong, change their mind and change it often.
By the way, so far, the "turnips scenario" presented here in April was followed by the markets, well, I should say "more or less" followed. Some details were missed (what else is new?).
Zeev |
