For those of you who may care to know the analysis that I've done for the next 2 quarters Q3 and Q4, here it is:
Note that Q1 and Q2 numbers are actuals, and Q3,Q4 are my (conservative) expectations:
Revenue (in $ millions): Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4
Semi: $184,$194,$210,$211 Total: $800 million, up 40% from last year.
BCS: $145,$165,$180,$200 Total: $690 million, down 13% from last year.
EBITDA:
Last year: $45,$69,$77,$83 Total:$274 million
This year: $62,$72,$79,$85 Total:$298 million, up 8.7%
EPS:
Last year: -0.05,0.10,0.21,0.27 Total:$0.53
This year: 0.18,0.05,0.15,0.19 Total:$0.57
EPS is lowered this year due to amortization of intangibles (started Q2) from the Vertex acquisition. EPS is not relevant indicator when there is unusual amortization expenses.
CASH EARNINGS per share:
Last year:0.32,0.49,0.47,0.70 Total:$1.98 per share
This year:0.46,0.53,0.54,0.58 Total:$2.11 per share
Note: number of shares increased by 11 million from Vertex acquisition in June this year.
Summary:
BCS sales slow this year, after a surprisingly strong year in 1999. Internet telephony transition and Y2K aftermath on capital spending are the culprits. Don't be surprised if BCS sales go better than expected in Q3,Q4 and whole of next year. Internet telephony will be the catalyst for growth in the BCS business.
Semis doing well, although growth expected to slow down to around 30% next year from 40% this year.
Look for news on OSA (optical networking), optical silicon chip, VOIP, Internet telephony, and more BCS contracts/sales with institutions (like the one with London police). |
