Bill H: I looked back thru the thread and noticed your participation began in April, I think. At that time
FCEL had dropped from 90 to about 38, maybe lower. I strongly believe that fuel cells will become the backbone power generation systems in the future for many reasons, so I bought a bunch. It is becoming clearer and clearer that this is going to take place even if Bush gets elected ( I hope not ). FCEL, BAllard, and maybe Plug, are becoming the driving forces for this revolution.
I jumped on Ballard very early in the game, did well and sold after making 3x my investment. This was a huge mistake as the stock went far beyond my expectations. I bought ERC early in the game and again sold after a large profit and boom, name change, further progress on development, and up we went. I got back in at a relative low point in April/May and plan to stick with it until its market cap reaches beyond 3 billion. I will probably stay with it for the real long term, which would mean experiencing lots of ups and downs.
Your assessment of over valuation is correct and any glitch, like a manufacturing problem, new production equipment malfunctions, materials issue, cost issues, will certainly slam the stock for a time. In fact, this may happen as the new plant comes on line around the February - April time frame. The learning curve can be unpredictable at times. But in the mean time, the stock could and should follow the Ballard model, so I give it a 70% chance of reaching $130, maybe higher if Gore wins the election, before March 2001. If the stock exceeds the 3.5 billion market cap, (you can check this on Yahoo, quote.yahoo.com within this time frame I might consider taking some profit and I fully expect the market cap to be 10 times what it is now in 2004.
You might like to read weband2 on the Yahoo thread, very helpful and pretty darn grounded.
I know my opinions don't really help, but they have served me well in the past.
Bill |
