Thanx Steve: now I need to look to see what kind of premium they
are getting on options, I will likly just buy puts, but in some
cases if the shares are available, and calls rates are cheaper I may
buy the calls and short the stock. The more I look at this last
rally, the more hot air I see in it. It's not just the EPs rates
The most of the mutaul funds have never really recovered from
last summers sell off, many have margined out to keep the stocks
high, as not to would cause an even worse fall in their NAVS,
in so doing they are paying interest on the Margins, and it's
slowly eating at thier base..this last rally could be the top,
I'm likly going to mostly cash this coming week..will be looking
very hard, I have so far this week end checked out 42 of the
147 mutual funds that I'm tracking in my data base, of that 42
only 6 are better off than they were last June, the resent gains
have not brought them back up..in spite of what looks like a
bull market, it's been a narrow run up in the large caps, and
not a broad based thing..to many of the funds are still down
if you get the real numbers..how could we have such a bull
market and so many of them lose money ? The monster is eating
up more profits than it is generating, people keep putting
retirement money in the funds and that has helped them hold on,
but of the money put in last year none of it has really grown,
she is capped out. Only the people who went in this last month
are ahead, and I doubt they stay that way for long if they stay
in..on the surface she looks healthy, but under the surface the
Navs are mostly below what they were this time last year, and
the stocks were not near as high..this adds up to leverage,
as the leveraged part is like a minus on the entry from stocks
held, on margin..the margin rate would not concern me if the
actual Navs had shown an improvement from last year..and in the
broard sence they don't, in effect we have not recovered from last July's sell off, it's still with us , we put a bandaid on it, and the bandaid is wearing thin and I think the bleeding could start again with the slightest bunp.
I'v not conculded my investigation, but what
I'v seen so far does not look good. This is not from anything I'v
read but my own tracking of the fund NAVS..using the base of last
Junes NAVS as a yardstick..they look sick.
For more of what I'v found click on my name and read the recent
stuff I posted in value investing.
Jim |
