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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.21

-1.1%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (61866)	11/4/2000 3:35:15 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Stephen, let me put it this way, where we differ is in the January rally. If we do not get a string of extremely deep oversold readings in that December retest of the recent bottom, we don't get that "mother of all rallies". If we get that extreme, well, than December's low will be a new low (g). Since I do not expect a new low in December, I must remain at odds with your forecast about the "mother of all rallies" in January. Here are just few of many "fundamental" reasons: We will begin getting 4th quarter results from corporations, and we will find to our surprise that winter heating bills may have eaten some $300 to $500 or so per household, that was going to be "splurged" on christmas. That is a lot of money when you multiply it by some 60 MM households or so. YOY growth rates comparisons for Q4 will be very tough, except for those companies that are involved in super rapid growth market (telecoms/internet infrastructure), and even these are now indicating slow down in rate of cap-ex. The Asian malaise which is still in the "stealth" phase will become more visible (I already hear that Taiwanese foundries are delaying their own cap ex, reason, no money). The poor Euro will find itself even poorer. Zeev

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