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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.92

+0.1%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (61876)	11/4/2000 8:57:01 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Steve, I fail to see what fundamental reasons will bring the Euro back to par with the dollar and less so, a level of $1.24. I could see parity later next year, after a massive problem in SE Asia is once more resolved by increasing the deficit in our balance of payments, but that will take quite some time. In the immediate future, namely to the end of the next quarter, I don't think that we will come to that. After all, if you adhere to a very strong Euro thesis, you will have to factor in repatriation of funds into Europe and out of our markets, and that will not be conducive to the rally you expect. I do not think that you can have an excessively weak dollar (and going from $.84 to $1.28 will also get the yen to under parity and should be considered "excessively weak dollar) and a "Mother of all rallies" in the stock market simultaneously. Zeev

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