Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 168.06

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3:59 PM EST

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To: tradeyourstocks who wrote (86273)	11/5/2000 10:12:53 AM
From: kech	Read Replies (2) of 152472

I agree the switch to GSM would be pointless. T always used switches that would allow an easier transition to CDMA if necessary. The question then (for me anyway) is why wait for W-CDMA rather than go CDMA now? The only motivation I can think if is that maybe they don't want to be a direct competitor to VERIZON and Sprint using CDMA on which they have a head start. Is there a possible motivation that says, if we maintain our upgrade path through EDGE and then W-CDMA, then not only is the expense lower initially (i.e. we spend less up front) but we hang on to all our customers who keep using their existing phones (either TDMA or analog) because they aren't very sophisticated users. The key here is that the move through EDGE reduces CHURN compared to going to CDMA now (even though CDMA now cheaper in the long run). Still the thing that really favor a switch to CDMA for T is that they could do it in all the slivers of spectrum that they have available and wouldn't need to get a 5mhz swath. A CDMA upgrade (not W-CDMA) would almost seem to be the only way to go from this perspective. On balance, the fear of CHURN and avoidance of near term capital expenditures is the only thing that must be keeping T away from CDMA. I can't buy the story that "technologists" can't admit to being wrong. They made a decision 6-7 years ago, by and large it hasn't hurt the franchise. Even then they knew they might need to switch. It is time to move on. What they hey, Armstrong has already admitted mistakes with his "bundling" strategy and that was only 2 years ago.

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