Joe, It 's a hard call.
siliconinvestor.com
The link above demonstrates the tracking power of CTXS over GOJO. As Citrix recovers some traction, I am in no doubt that Graphon will follow. Simple investment group convergence which will prevail as long as GOJO does not break even.
In that respect, Graphon's CEO Walt Keller sounds positive, i.e. the company appears to be on track to hit its $10 million sales target this year with a $25 million dollar sales objective for next year. Bottom line, when will GOJO show a profit? My guess is by mid year next year based on the current sales ramp up, the growing momentum of Windows 2000 (ASP roll out) and the acceptance of Linux as a first tier operating system (Gartner predicts that within 3 years 80% of corporate networks will feature Linux (within an heterogeneous OS environment, i.e. NT, UNIX, Linux). Given this environment, the sales objectives of Keller look reasonable.
In summary as Citrix recovers to $35 (CTXS is at $23 today), you should see GOJO cross the $7 barrier. Longer term, as a small cap, GOJO can not prosper under adverse market circumstances, i.e. Nasdaq below 4,000 points. Fortunately, technology will most likely ride the wave of Xmas sales, so my projection is for a Nasdaq index at 4,500 in mid February. If my prediction turns out to be accurate, Citrix could retest $50 and GOJO $12. Beyond 1Q01, GOJO needs to show profit and/or revisit its sales forecasts upward, e.g. China, ASPs. GOJO hit its peak on the back of a series of Linux news from China (between you and me, they completely mis-communicated this news to the Street, thus raising the investors' expectation as well as the speculation on the stock). Consequently, I don't expect GOJO to hit $30 before the end of next year, beginning of 2001.
Over to You.
The Fogg |
