Bob: I share your concern here. What I think MTSL may be counting on is the expectation that Dr. Tolcher's presentation is going to be, after all, just a presentation with some good info and not like a formal proof of statistically significant Phase-III results of any drug etc. at this stage. So, in that case, there could be short-term severe blip to the downside (as a sell-on-the-mild-news reaction), and some others can then even join-in at around $20. So, they may have kept the price unchanged for now at $20. Also, another consideration could be that, the present price perhaps already reflects the events up to next 3-4 months, so that, there is more likelihood of investors' initial reaction to be of 'pulling the trigger' kind, on upcoming expected news IMHO. And the price in thirties is not that small after all anyway, at this stage. We, the very long term buyers in the 1-4 range, may not sometimes realize this now, but to pop-out 30 bucks for a share at this stage may be perceived by some as too high, considering the R/R ratio (especially for big-boys), since, the high-techs' recent, consistent downdrafts have created some better R/R ratios elsewhere. (And come January, high-flying biotechs of this year, may experience a "alt-January-effect" of extended profit-taking!). Furthermore, if all the big funds are already in, then some might suspect: from where the next short-term oomph might come to IMGN's price action? Most individual investors may have already reached their limit of risk tolerance with this one by now, and the recent wild swings could be unnerving to them also.
So, given all these observations, I'm not surprised that MTSL would not budge for now, from their entry-price level of 20. I'm optimistic but cautious in the short term, and even afraid a bit, that, we might even revisit that 20 level, that they are sticking to for now. They are acting conservatively and prudently IMHO, for maintaining and earning the long-term loyalty of their subscribers. As always, all IMHO ofcourse and pure speculation at this stage.
regards to all,
-/Sonny. |
