The Lesser of Two Bubbleheads
On Tuesday you will enter the voting booths and cast a vote for who you want to be the next President of the United States. Who is best for the country and for the stock market? Our only real indication of what type of men Bush and Gore are we have is from watching their Presidential campaigns.
Let's first take Bush and the Republican Primary. Bush faced heavy challenge from John McCain who campaigned on an anti-establishment platform of busting the influence of corporations and special interest groups through campaign finance reform. The first thing he did was get some of his campaign staff to spread rumors that John McCain may be unstable, because of his POW experience, and was unfit to be President. One of his staffers called up Admiral James Stockdale, who won the Medal of Honor Award for living in the Hanoi Hilton for over a decade and ran for Vice-President with Ross Perot in 1992, and asked him to hold a press conference to state that John McCain was sick in the head. Stockdale held a conference and then said that he thought the Bush campaign tactics were disgusting.
Although under funded, McCain became a substantial challenge to Bush. After winning the New Hampshire primary McCain set his sights on winning South Carolina and it looked like he had a good chance. South Carolina became Bush's first real crisis. The Republican Party establishment and their corporate backers got scared of a McCain victory and began to funnel money into the Bush campaign. When the primary was done and over with Bush outspent McCain by 3:1. In South Carolina and Michigan Bush paid for people to call up voters and say that McCain opposed cancer research, had an illegitimate black child, and would pollute the country if elected President. At campaign rallies he ripped down posters that said Compassionate Conservative and put up posters that said A Reformer with Results. He paid people to come to his rallies as extras and hoot and holler for Bush so that it would look like the McCain rallies people were seeing on TV were there was genuine excitement in the air. Bush then claimed he supported campaign finance reform, although his reforms consisted of eliminating all campaign finance restrictions and laws. His advisors, relying on their polls told him how to change his message and become a reformer with results. He would say or do anything to win the nomination. He became all things to all people and lied about his opponent whenever necessary. After New Hampshire he yelled a lot and talked louder to make his words and campaign seem more important and to reassure himself that he was a leader who got things done.
You would have thought he got his playbook from Al Gore, because that became Gore's strategy too, although he became a bit more bizarre. At the beginning of the Democratic Primary Gore's challenger, Bill Bradley leaped ahead of him in the polls. Women and blacks supported Bradley more than they did Gore. Pundits said Gore looked wooden and weak. So Gore hired a feminist advisor to instruct him on how to act in a way that would make him look more like a leader. She said he had to act more like a man. Her advice: wear casual clothes, move your arms around a lot, and yell a lot when you speak. His poll advisors said he needed to attack Bradley. Make people fear him.
So Gore went to work. He claimed that if Bradley became President he would put social security in danger. He would ruin the public schools by supporting vouchers. At a debate in Harlem he yelled out that Bradley would make is so blacks would no longer get Medicare benefits. Just like Bush, he then acted as if Bradley's programs were his own, saying he supported giving free subscription drugs to senior citizens. Bradley never put on much of a response to Gore's lies so he faded from the polls.
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The polls are showing a dead even race that is too close to call. Whoever wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Illinois will be the new President. People who are putting money on the race are betting on Bush. The chart above is the Iowa University Presidential futures market. Since the Presidential debates more the value of Bush's contract has steadily increased in value. Bush's momentum in the polls has also been to the upside. It is clear what is happening. Most people are voting on the candidate's image and appearances. Bush had such a poor reputation as a complete idiot that he has simply beat most people's expectations in the debate and in the campaign. On the other hand the more people see of Gore the less they like him. He just acts weird.
What is more of an important question is what kind of men will either of these be if elected and what will they accomplish. They have proven by the way that they have campaigned that they are both basically poll driven and will say or do anything to keep ahead in the polls. Once elected I doubt this pattern will change.
As for their programs Bush wants to use the budget surplus to cut taxes and increase defense spending and Al Gore wants to use the budget surplus for giveaway programs. The problem is neither one has said what programs they will cut to fund these. They assume that they won't have to, they'll just use the budget surplus. But anyone with some common sense knows that this budget surplus will shrink next year and may not exist at all. The budget surplus grew on a stock market bubble and a growing economy. The bubble has been popped and everyone knows that the economy will slowdown next year, it's just a question of how much. Wealth will contract and so will tax revenue. The budget surplus will follow.
Whoever wins will be faced with a tough decision. To enact their programs and risk blowing a budget deficit ,which would mean more inflation and risk higher interest rates, or take the tough political hits of explaining why he can't go through his campaign promises without putting danger to the prosperity. Will they all of a sudden become real leaders or will they do anything to keep the polls up and their egos flying high? Which bubblehead will you trust with your wallet? |
