Eichler, I give you credit! You do your homework! The day after Nortel reported, even though the naz did not retrace to the 2850 level (which I was looking for), it did resemble to me a real form of capitulation. It was across the board and lasted longer than 5 minutes (as in the previous test of the 3000 support). As I am not just a TA type (I factor in such FA realities as tax selling by institutions, seasonally positive periods etc.), MY definition was satisfied for 'capitulation' as least in terms of the possibility of an reasonable up move. About 2 in the after noon I began nimbling across the board on all my favorates (GLW, BVSN, XLNX, IBM, QCOM, & A). They all have rallied well since that time and I expect it do continue to the 3700 level at which time we will be reasonably overbought and due for retracing.
I reserve the right to change based on new information, but based on the TA and readings and understandings of many factors at play right now, I see a move to around 3700, a retracement to about 3100 by Dec. 1 and then a mother rally into Jan. 20. I do believe the economy will slow considerably regardless of who is elected. This will impact the markets...Steve D. |
