Let's hope for the best, now. I went to CNN's message board last night, and nobody was discussing issues -- it was all a lot of name-calling. I think at this point that's all that's left.
The polling experts suggest that among undecided voters at this point in an election, half don't vote and most of the rest vote against the incumbent. This suggests that Bush could see a 2% increase in actual vote compared with the final polls.
However, this time, we could see some Nader voters switching last minute to Gore in some key states. It's a nail-biter to me.
I'll look to Maine and New Hampshire first. If they both go to Bush, that's an indication that the toss-up states will lean toward Bush. If those two have no quick result, then it may be a very long night.
Wisconsin and Iowa are two more critical indicators -- assuming we won't have a decision on Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan until very late, it looks like if Wisconsin and Iowa go to Bush, then 1 or 2 of those "biggies" will follow, along with several other close races, resulting in a Bush victory. But if Gore manages to take Wisconsin especially, and Iowa runs very close -- again, a very long night for Bush supporters.
Damn, this thing could come down to watching for results from New Mexico (5 electoral votes) and Oregon (7 electoral votes: will Nader supporters switch to Gore or stay with Nader, giving Bush the victory?).
This is a once in a lifetime event for most of us, I think.
Get your friends out to vote! It's too late to worry about the undecided or try to change the minds of Gore supporters. The key is to get everyone who wants Bush to win to the polls! Let's do it!!!!
Kevin/fuzzymath |
