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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (34090)11/6/2000 1:32:55 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
Heinz, I don't think this bear market will be the "pushing on string" 1930's variety for the US. You are quite correct to point out Japan as current example of same. However, I think the big Japanese money pump didn't work for two reasons.

1. The money was spent building "bridges to nowhere" and not encouraging internal consumption.
2. The demographic mix in Japan is still horrible - too many old folks not spending money in their dotage.

The US immigration numbers posted by Les Horowitz indicate to me one last consumer driven boom, and that lower rates will work their old black magic once again. However, this particular bear market is far from over. There are still a tremendous amount of exceedingly shaky credits out there in the world economy that need to be purged. Until that process is well on it's way to completion no new bull market can unfold.

I simply hope it doesn't get too far out of control. It might though. But the next bear market will be the big kahuna, when nothing will work.
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