Forced to give a final decision on this election, I have struggled to reach a final selection.
The locked electoral votes for Bush are 213 and for Gore are 176. There were 12 undecided states with 149 electoral votes.
The most accurate method to make predictions consisted of analyzing all possible outcomes in the undecided states of CA, FL, WI, TN, MO, IA, OR, AR, NM, WV, NH, and DE. Those states, simulated over 4096 possible outcomes, broke 77 electoral votes for Gore and 72 electoral votes for Bush.
This would give Bush a 285 to 253 win, with .60 probability.
95% Confidence Interval: Bush--239 to 344 and Gore--194 to 299
Because the 12 states have different probabilities and not 50/50, the confidence intervals are not symmetric about the mean estimates for Bush and Gore.
HOWEVER, THE ABOVE IS NOT MY PICK FOR TOMORROW’S EVENTS.
True, the detailed analysis of all combinations will produce the true long run estimate of the final mix. But there are not 4096 elections occurring tomorrow, there is 1 single event. Consequently, the most accurate estimate for a SINGLE EVENT is a point estimate. States that are leaning to a candidate are given to that candidate.
Bush locked states: 213 electoral votes (TX, OH, NC, VA, GA IN, AL, LA, AZ, OK, SC, KY, CO, MS, KS, NE, UT, ID, NV, ME, AK, ND, WY, SD, MT)
Gore locked states: 176 electoral votes (NY, PA, IL, MI, NJ, MA, WA, MD, MN, CT, HI, RI, VT, DC)
Bush leaning states: 33 electoral votes (WI, TN, AR, WV)
Gore leaning states: 86 electoral votes (CA, FL, IA)
This produces 262 votes for Gore, 246 votes for Bush and 30 votes not yet assigned.
Tossup states: 30 electoral votes (MO, OR, NM, NH, DE) These 5 states are the toughest to call, IMHO. Using all polling data available, some gut feel, and a few SWAGs, I give Bush MO and NM (16 votes) and I give Gore OR, NH, and DE (14 votes).
My Guess: 276 Gore, 262 Bush; Pop Vote 48 Bush, 46 Gore, 5 Nader, 1 Other
Notes on Tie Probabilities
There are 146 possible distinct electoral vote combinations in those 12 states. The 14th most likely to occur is one where Gore gets 93 votes and Bush gets 56 votes for a 269 to 269 tie. The tie has a probability of .0140, higher than the typical electoral vote combination but not something to consider seriously.
Probability of Electoral Vote Tie: .0140
Probability of No House Decision for Pres: .5000
Probability of No Senate Decision for VP: .00788
Overall Probability of No Pres/No VP Decision from the current slate of candidates: .00005516 or 1 in 18,129 |
