I have modified my detailed model estimate to reflect recent changes.
The detailed estimate is shown first:.
The locked electoral votes for Bush are 213 and for Gore are 176. There were 12 undecided states with 149 electoral votes.
The most accurate method to make predictions consisted of analyzing all possible outcomes in the undecided states of CA, FL, WI, TN, MO, IA, OR, AR, NM, WV, NH, and DE. Those states, simulated over 4096 possible outcomes, broke 77 electoral votes for Bush and 72 electoral votes for Gore.
This would give Bush a 290 to 248 electoral vote win, with .66 probability.
95% Confidence Interval: Bush--239 to 344 and Gore--194 to 299
If simulated thousands and thousands of times, this would be the long term result.
However, this is a single shot event. I will choose the POINT ESTIMATE as my FINAL CHOICE.
Bush locked states: 213 electoral votes (TX, OH, NC, VA, GA IN, AL, LA, AZ, OK, SC, KY, CO, MS, KS, NE, UT, ID, NV, ME, AK, ND, WY, SD, MT)
Gore locked states: 176 electoral votes (NY, PA, IL, MI, NJ, MA, WA, MD, MN, CT, HI, RI, VT, DC)
Bush leaning states: 22 electoral votes (TN, AR, WV)
Gore leaning states: 32 electoral votes (FL, IA)
This produces 208 votes for Gore, 235 votes for Bush and 95 votes not yet assigned.
Tossup states: 95 electoral votes (CA, WI, MO, OR, NM, NH, DE) These 7 states are the toughest to call, IMHO. Using all polling data available, some gut feel, and a few SWAGs, I give Bush WI, MO and NM (27 votes) and I give Gore CA, OR, NH, and DE (68 votes).
My Guess: 276 Gore, 262 Bush; Pop Vote 48 Bush, 46 Gore, 5 Nader, 1 Other
This is unchanged from the prior post, as I had already given Bush TN, WI, and MO…and I continue to give Gore CA, despite the final tie. Notably, CA is my biggest gut feel. If I am wrong then, of course, 54 would go to Bush and 54 taken from Gore’s totals.
If I were a betting man, I’d bet one penny on this election…and that’s a stretch.
Notes on Tie Probabilities
There are 146 possible distinct electoral vote combinations in those 12 states. The 32nd most likely to occur is one where Gore gets 93 votes and Bush gets 56 votes for a 269 to 269 tie. The tie has a probability of .0110, higher than the typical electoral vote combination but not something to consider seriously.
Probability of Electoral Vote Tie: .0110
Probability of No House Decision for Pres: .5000
Probability of No Senate Decision for VP: .00788
Overall Probability of No Pres/No VP Decision from the current slate of candidates: .00004334 or 1 in 23,073. |
