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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 178.29-1.6%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: GO*QCOM who wrote (4383)11/7/2000 5:51:02 PM
From: EJhonsa  Read Replies (1) of 196961
 
A couple of facts about EDGE:

americasnetwork.com

EDGE is based on GSM packet data – actually, GPRS with a new modulation scheme...In the TDMA camp, the migration path to 3G is from IS-136 to GSM/EDGE, according to Kiernan. "What that means is that the ANSI-41 network will be tied to the GSM air interface, and that’s very different from before," he says. "If someone with a GSM phone is running from Europe to the U.S., he doesn’t have to tie into our ANSI network [using a North American IS-136 phone]; he can tie into the ANSI network through the EDGE air interface [using the GSM phone]..."Through ANSI-41 EDGE," adds Kiernan, "you add roaming capability to anyone who is GSM-enabled, so in effect it’s a worldwide, ubiquitous TDMA network.

As these statements explain, EDGE appears to be a modified version of GSM/GPRS with the only differences being that it can provide higher data rates, and can be overlayed on an ANSI-41 core. The primary advantage an EDGE upgrade has against a 1x overlay on a TDMA network (as you might know, IS/95 networks also operate on ANSI-41 cores) is that the world's GSM users can roam on it. In return, all that a carrier misses out on is a 5-6x voice/data capacity increase and higher (I'm guessing here) average data rates, with greater capacity/data rate increases possible further down the line; and since EDGE requires an IS-136 TDMA air interface to be ripped out in favor of a GSM air interface for both voice and data, I doubt that the costs for an EDGE upgrade would be much lower than the costs for a 1x upgrade.

The only TDMA carrier for whom I think that an EDGE upgrade might make sense is Cingular, as they've got both GSM and TDMA properties which they need to integrate. Not that an EDGE upgrade would necessarily be the best long-term option for them, but at least they can make a somewhat convincing argument to defend such a move. As for the others, especially AWE, which operates in a country that already contains a nationwide GSM operator possessing numerous international roaming agreements, I'm left wondering what they're thinking. I suppose they could argue that a 1x overlay would require CDMA/TDMA/AMPS tri-modes to be created, and thus could lead to handset supply problem; but on the same note, dual-modes will also be needed for EDGE, and with current support for the technology being relatively low, the number of TDMA/EDGE/AMPS tri-modes that'll be produced might not be that significant either.

To make sure that I don't get disappointed, I'm not counting on any major switches to happen. However, this situation isn't like the one faced by the GSM operators, for whom a cdma2000 upgrade which doesn't create roaming problems would require complete network overhauls (and even then, roaming problems could exist for a GSM operator that breaks ranks, say, within Western Europe). Given the rumors that are surfacing, and considering the cost advantages that 1x carriers will have over EDGE operators, even if they chose not to implement HDR, for once, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the conspiracy theories being floated prove correct.

Eric
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