Many of the same things in Allen's post, plus a few longer-term problems he didn't mention. In no particular order:
1. The overvalued markets and deteriorating corporate and personal credit situation lead to a Japanese-style financial implosion. Time frame: 0-4 years.
2. Continued demand from emerging nations and the wasteful practices of the US, together with an ever-dwindling supply, keeps energy prices moving higher. Time frame: probably 5+ years away, but who knows?
3. A recession, precipitated by (1), (2), or some other factor. Time frame: 0-4 years.
4. The boomer retirement bust, wherein we discover that there aren't enough new workers being added to the base of the social security pyramid scheme to support the boomers in the style to which they've become accustomed, and wherein drawdowns on financial assets may lead to (1). Put some social security "assets" into the financial markets to double your fun with this one -- a huge initial spike followed by an even bigger denoument (this is one of the few major issues where I disagree with Mr. Bush). Time frame: 5-10 years.
5. Looming ecological catastrophe finally forces extremely unpopular action on fossil fuels and nuclear energy from whoever's on watch at the time. Time frame: 10-20 years, though we really should recognise the problem and take action now.
6. A war, started by your choice from the world-wide pool of madmen, possibly precipitated by (2) and/or (5) coupled with continuing population-related problems. US military sadly unprepared. Time frame: 0-20 years, though I continue to hope we'll avoid this completely.
What's your list look like? |
