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Absentees may push Bush to victory in Florida, but new tallies possible in Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire
By Tom Curry
MSNBC
NEW YORK, Nov. 8 — All eyes may be on the recount in Florida, but even if Democrat Al Gore were to prevail there, his bid for the presidency would not be absolutely secure if his wafer-thin victories in Iowa and Wisconsin were also put to a recount.
IN IOWA, with 99 percent of voting precincts reporting as of noon Wednesday, Gore had only a 5,253-vote lead over Republican George W. Bush out of nearly 1.3 million votes cast, while in Wisconsin, with all precincts reporting, Gore had a lead of 5,921 out of more than 2.5 million votes cast.
ANOTHER RECOUNT SCENARIO
If Gore were to win Florida but then have his victories in Iowa and Wisconsin reversed after the votes in those two states were recounted, he would have only 267 electoral votes — three short of the 270 he needs to win the electoral vote.
In that case, Gore would need Oregon’s seven electoral votes to push him to victory. Bush has a small lead in Oregon, but an estimated 350,000 votes have yet to be counted in that state.
Kevin Kennedy, executive director of the Wisconsin Election Board, said if the losing candidate sought to challenge the results, he would need to do so no later than three business days after the state had received official results from all 72 of the state’s counties, which would probably be next Wednesday. So challenges would need to be filed by Nov. 20.
If there were a recount, each county’s board of canvassers would conduct it. The candidate challenging the results could present evidence to each county’s board of any allegedly improper ballots. The county boards’ decisions would be subject to appeal in state court.
Even before Election Day, a controversy erupted in Wisconsin over allegations that homeless people in Milwaukee had been paid in cigarettes to vote for Gore.
Constance Milstein, a longtime donor to Democratic candidates, went to Milwaukee homeless shelters last weekend to recruit voters. Men from one homeless mission told a local television station that they had been offered packs of cigarettes after they cast absentee ballots - but they said they weren’t told for whom to vote.
A recount might also be possible in New Hampshire, where Bush has only a 7,282-vote edge out of more than 563,00 votes cast. The Granite State has four electoral votes. If Bush were to win Florida’s 25 electoral votes but lose New Hampshire’s four, he then would have only 267 electoral votes — three short of the 270 he needs.
In that scenario, again the outcome would hinge on the final count in Oregon. Florida, though, remains the biggest state whose votes are still in limbo.
The Voter News Service — the vote-counting consortium formed by the major television networks and The Associated Press — showed Bush at noon Eastern time Wednesday with a 1,784-vote edge over Gore in the Sunshine State.
COUNTIES WILL COUNT
In Florida, the recount is the responsibility of each county’s election officials. Election supervisors in the state’s 67 counties were ordered to start the recount as soon as possible Wednesday. With the vote difference at less than 0.5 percent, an automatic recount was triggered under state law.
“They’ve been up all night, so they might not get to work right at 8 a.m.,” said Clay Roberts, director of the state Division of Elections. “We think it’s important that the people of Florida have an answer as quickly as possible. But also we think it’s important that we do this right.”
In each county, a three-member canvassing board made up of a county judge, the chairman of the county commission and the local elections supervisor, recounts the votes. The makeup of the canvassing board is supposed to insulate the process from politics, Roberts said.
In Tallahassee, the state capital, the results would be certified by Gov. Jeb Bush, brother of the GOP nominee, Republican Secretary of State Katherine Harris and Roberts, also a Republican appointee.
Representatives of both national parties were headed to the state. The Gore campaign said former Secretary of State Warren Christopher was in charge of its effort. Bush said former Secretary of State James Baker will represent his camp.
Senior Democratic officials also said a team of three lawyers, including Democratic Party counsel Joe Sandler, was on the way to Florida to observe the final canvass.
Another potentially crucial issue in Florida is the number of absentee ballots cast by Floridians living overseas. In 1996 there were approximately 2,500 such absentee ballots, many of them from military personnel.
As of Wednesday morning, it was not known how many absentee ballots may come in from Floridians living overseas.
But NBC News Elections Director Sheldon Gawiser says many of the overseas absentee ballots will likely be from military personnel, who would tend to support Bush.
Ed Offley, editor in chief of Stars and Stripes, a leading newspaper covering the U.S. military, told Reuters that “military people tend to vote Republican by about eight or nine to one.”
The overseas absentee ballots had to be postmarked by Nov. 7, but they have until Nov. 17 to arrive at local election offices in Florida.
In 1996, of the 2,300 overseas absentee ballots that were returned in Florida, 54 percent were cast for Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole, in a state that was carried by President Bill Clinton. |
