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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (127673)11/9/2000 12:58:53 AM
From: Petz  Read Replies (4) of 1570090
 
ted, based on my analysis of the 3407 votes cast for Buchanan in Palm Beach county, probably 2000 to 2500 of them were cast by error.

So here's what I think will happen. If the recount without overseas absentee ballots results in a plurality for Bush of less than 2500 (likely), the Democrats will not concede and the overseas absentees will be counted.

If the plurality for Bush is still less than 2500 I foresee a major constitutional crisis. Gore might back down in the interest of national unity, but I doubt it. He would push for a second election in Florida. The Republicans would challenge that idea because, obviously, no one would vote for Nader (or Buchanan for that matter). I'm not really sure who would blink first.

I don't think its a given that Gore would win a re-election, but it is probably likely. The Republicans would probably rather let the courts decide. They would argue that, if voters were confused, they could have and should have asked for assistance at the polling site, and it's their own fault if they didn't.

The matter would quickly rise to the Florida Supreme Court which would have to decide on either a new Florida election or letting the vote tally stand.

My own opinion is that the Palm Beach ballot was very marginally confusing. I have seen poor wording of ballot initiatives that made a choice much more confusing that Palm Beach. For example, in California, the Attorney General decided to call a ballot initiative to define the legal definition of marriage as the "limitation of marriage initiative," when "definition of marriage" or "traditional definition of marriage" would have been more neutral language.

The Pro-Life groups never got to first base in challenging that one.

Petz
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