Mexico's Fox Fishing for Corruption
  Summary
  Mexico's President-elect Vicente Fox has pledged a zero-tolerance policy against corrupt politicians, senior military officials and government bureaucrats. Previous Mexican presidents have made similar promises before taking office, but did little or nothing while serving their terms because the corruption was associated with the ruling Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI). Fox, who ended the 71-year reign of the PRI July 2, is serious about rooting out corruption. But he likely will cause major confrontations with thousands of public sector union leaders and with local bosses who traditionally have lived on economic and political patronage dispensed by the PRI.
  Analysis
  Mexican President Vicente Fox says one of his first actions Dec. 1, the day he assumes the presidency of Mexico, will be to order an in-depth audit of "each and every" government office. "The hooks are already out," Fox said at a press conference Nov. 7, while pledging a national crusade against corrupt politicians, senior military officials and government bureaucrats. He said his government would target very high-level corruption from the outset. "We expect to take a few sharks to jail," he said. "Not big fish, but sharks."
  Catching the sharks of Mexican corruption will be a dangerous undertaking. Fox's anti-corruption crusade is aimed directly at the deeply entrenched and corrupt system of political patronage created by the PRI during its seven decades in power. Dismantling this system will put Fox on a collision course with thousands of government union leaders. Fox also will be challenged by local PRI bosses, or "caciques", whose power and wealth are based on decades of trading votes for the PRI in return for a share of the economic and political spoils. With the PRI out of power, party discipline is already breaking down.
  __________________________________________________________________
  What do you get with your subscription?
  As the world waits to see who becomes the next president of the United States, Stratfor.com is already analyzing the world the next occupant of the White House will face, in our new WorldView section. And in WorldView today, we're watching how American power is waning in the Middle East, in the aftermath of the crisis in Israel.
  Subscribe now for just $49.95 per year! stratfor.com _____________________________________________________________
  Last week, public sector union bosses gave Fox a glimpse of the challenge that awaits him as president. When former President Ernesto Zedillo's government denied its 1.6 million bureaucrats a traditional, end-of-term political loyalty bonus PRI governments paid every six years without fail, thousands of angry public workers walked off their jobs and tied up traffic in downtown Mexico City for six days. The government finally caved in and agreed to a settlement that will cost Mexican taxpayers more than $500 million.
  After the turmoil subsided, spokesmen for Fox hastened to announce his government did not plan any large-scale layoffs of public workers. However, Fox's determination to make the Mexican bureaucracy more efficient and honest ensures public protests and strikes by government workers will occur more frequently.
  A bigger headache for Fox will be groups such as the National Torch Movement, an organization created in 1974 by radical agronomy students and poor farmers who fought against the injustices of abusive PRI bosses in Indian villages. While the movement was created to fight the PRI, its leaders were quickly seduced into joining the PRI in return for a share of the party's economic and political largesse. The group numbers more than one million members and has an organized presence in all 32 Mexican states. Its leaders have been vital cogs in the PRI's party machinery for years because they can channel the potential radicalism of Mexico's 40 million indigent into militant support of the PRI at election time.
  ________________________________________________________
  Yes, I'd like to subscribe for just $49.95 per year! stratfor.com ________________________________________________________
  Since the PRI lost its monopoly on power, however, party discipline is breaking down; competing groups that once supported the PRI are now turning against each other. In August, a gun battle between Torch Movement members and a rival group of PRI supporters in Chimalhuacan, a poor community about 12 miles from Mexico City, left 10 people dead, 98 wounded and 204 jailed. Most of the dead and injured were Torch Movement members. The fight was over control of the local city hall, and it was a harbinger of conflicts Fox may face as he tries to make Mexican politics less corrupt and more democratic.
  Fox is sincere about attacking political and bureaucratic corruption, but as president he will be forced to make compromises with groups whose economic and political survival depends upon Mexico's decades-old tradition of political patronage. Moreover, as he tries to break up the old PRI system, Fox also will be dispensing patronage to his supporters, potentially exposing his government to charges of corruption by his political opponents.
  Fox is acutely conscious of his vulnerability. In fact, the president has delayed announcing the composition of his Cabinet due to new grueling background checks that include relatives, friends and business partners. Fox will seek to avoid open conflict while pushing bureaucratic reforms to weed out corruption.
  _______________________________________________
  SUBSCRIBE to our new service. Just go to stratfor.com _______________________________________________
  (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. _______________________________________________
  SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. Click on stratfor.com UNSUBSCRIBE by clicking on stratfor.com _______________________________________________ Stratfor.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com |