Appreciate your "cautious" comments. It is healthly to hear all sides of the story. But, realize that 1) a company will be extremely conservative in their 10K regarding competetion and chance of success. Hell, Coke doesn't even say that they're product is a sure thing (while we all know it is!), and 2) simply licensing the Bellcore tech does not in any way guarantee that a company can mass produce the product. Manufacture of a lithium battery is EXTREMELY difficult. Valence has proven in the past they can manufature a battery, although their metal hydride battery proved to be unsafe. Valence has key patents over the manufacture of lithiun polymer batteries. If there are so many others out there, why has Delphi continued to work almost exclusively with VLNC on this type of product and invested money in them?? Yes, there will be competetion. If there wasn't, this wouldn't be a legitimate product. To say that ALL players will receive 10% of the battery market evenly is like saying that all players in the PC business or software business receive 10% evenly, which is ridiculous. Can Valence get 30%? 50%? 70%? 0%? That's the question you have to figure out, and your answer may make you wealthy, or poor!
Regarding Don's prediction of DOW 11,000: Well, people thought he was ridiculous when he predicted DOW 8000, and we're on a couple hundred away. The fact is, there is an UNBELIEVABLE supply of money in the market right now, and there's no where else to invest. Is this healthy? Who knows. It's a fact, though!
Re: ""From my initial crude analysis, I think the upside in 3 years is $30 and downside is $1."" I'm interested to see the basis for your crude analysis. Also, don't forget the effect momentum investors have on a stock's price. Healthy or not, they can drive the price of a stock to stratespheric levels. The lithium battery industry may prove to be rewarding for investors IF a company can mas produce, to spec, the batteries.
Would appreciate any analysis that you can provide. But, please, be as objective as you ask us to be! |
