Based on this info, I think we can start firming up revenue
and eps estimates.
REVENUE (BILLIONS)
2000 2001
1.09 act 1.29 est +18% (based on high-teen YOY estimate)
1.17 act 1.43 est +22% (based on 22% floor for year)
1.21 act 1.50 est +24% "
1.33 est 1.65 est Q4'00 based on reiteration of 4.8 est. for 2000
----- -----
4.80 5.87 (+22.3%)
Now for Q4 earnings, AMD gave pretty specific guidance on
expenses at the Q3 CC: depreciation would rise 10M, R&D
'slightly' so 5M, MGA 13M (they said 10 to 15M). Cost of
sales minus depreciation should rise proportional to income
at 40% of the increase, so that rises 48M based on the 120M
revenue increase.
Net income before taxes, 311M, after 20% taxes 0.70 / share
based on 357M shares (Q3 CC).
For 2001, I'm going to assume that expenses rise by 20M
per quarter (except only 15M in the first quarter because of
reduced advertising) plus 40% of the increase
(decrease) of sales, and that the tax rate is 31%. This
allows for about a $12M increase in depreciation expense per
quarter (pretty hefty), $5M for R&D and $3M for MG&A.
The baseline expenses is 1019M in Q4
For Q1'01 we get 1019 +15 - 16 = 1018M, Net(272M/360M)*.69= 0.52
For Q2'01, 1018 +20 + 56 = 1094M, Net (305M/363M)*.69= 0.58
For Q3'01, 1094 +20 + 28 = 1142M, Net (358M/366M)*.69= 0.67
For Q4'01, 1142 +25 + 60 = 1227M, Net (423M/369M)*.69= 0.79
So putting revenue and net income / share together, we get:
2000 2001
Revenue Net Revenue Net
Q1 1.09 0.57 1.29 0.52
Q2 1.17 0.60 1.43 0.58
Q3 1.21 0.64 1.50 0.67
Q4 1.33 0.70 1.65 0.79
---- ----- ---- -----
$4.80B $2.51 $5.87B $2.56 (2% increase YOY)
Comments?
Note that, pretax, 2001 would be 1.358B net income vs.
1.024B net income in 2000, a 32.6% increase. But remember,
going from an effective 15% rate in 2000 to an effective 31%
rate in 2001 turns a 23.2% gain into NO gain. Subtract
another 5% because of increasing number of shares and you
need a 29.4% gain just to show flat EPS in 2001 vs.
2000. The EPS numbers for 2000 also included a couple small
"other income items" that are included in the 2000 numbers
but assumed not to be repeated in the 2001 numbers.
In particular, note that my EPS numbers for 2000 do NOT
include the Legerity sale. There isn't a snowballs chance in
hell of beating Y2000 eps if that gain is included.
Petz |
