Mody, good to see signs of life on this board. Apparently management is awaiting official results of their testosterone product in males as well as the results of their peptide delivery system before deciding what to do with the company. Clearly if both the testosterone buccal tablet and the peptide delivery system work, this company is worth more than its current price. I suspect that the former will be found to work, but I am very skeptical about the latter.
There's some speculation that the stock may be under accumulation by a potential buyer of the company. I doubt this is the case. True the stock has run up to 7 twice in recent days, but these movements look to me more like retail buying.
Unfortunately, I'm not expecting much from the company's Q3 report. Why? Well, Serono did not have a particularly good time selling Crinone 8% during Q3. Will Crinone 8% ever catch on? Perhaps. But the going to going to be slow. There's still too much resistance by physicians who prefer to stick their patients repeatedly in order to get their progesterone levels up. Physicians no doubt prefer injections because they can accurately measure blood levels. Not so when they use Crinone. Of course, it's not necessary to measure blood levels when using Crinone, but old habits die hard. There's also another group of physicians who prefer using suppositories that can be made up locally. The advantage here is price and price alone.
Two other factors that may affect the stock price are partnering MipHil and Crinone 4%. When will this happen? Don't hold your breath. Since management is considering outright sale of the company, partners for these products are not likely to be announced unless and until management decides not to go ahead with the sale of the company.
The company is also trying to line up a distributor to knock on the doors of obgyn's and pedal Crinone 8% to them. This sound like a feasible plan and I understand that something is in the works. This too could give a boost to the stock price as it would open a whole new area of sales for Crinone 8%.
So for the next few months, we are going to sit in limbo. Hopefully the stock will continue to inch up as it has been lately while we wait. I think the tale will be told within the next 90 days. Of course, we are running on COB time, so perhaps that estimate should be doubled.
Big Doc |
