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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Scumbria who wrote (127910)	11/9/2000 11:18:44 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) of 1570760

Scumbria, I am not sure, but I think it should approach some limit and not get lower. My quick model of 12 coins shows about 7% chance of getting 3 or less (25%) My guess is that the coin tosses form a normal distribution. Suppose your left extreme is 0, center is 1000, right extreme is 2000. The solution I think is the area under the curve that goes up to 500. I think once you leave small discrete numbers, you start to approach a limit. The area is much smaller than the are under 500 to 2000, but I don't think it is not infitesimally smaller. I think the ratio between the 2 areas should be fixed. But I don't think this is the correct problem to solve. You are looking at net errors per county, and taking a net of that. A county (let's take the first one) that added 65 to Gore 62 to Bush could have had 165 additions to Gore 100 subtractions, 162 additions to Bush, 100 subtractions. Now next step is netting across counties. These 2 steps reduce the "fidelity" so much that you are left with very little of significance. If you are going to base your calculation on errors, you need to include all errors (error = differences between 1st count and 2nd count). Joe

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