Hi Paul, I thought I was generous when I said to give VLNC a 10% market share, because they have to "show me the money" to convince me otherwise. This is afterall a commodity business. You can argue that CPQ has much more than 10% of the PC market, but is VLNC really CPQ? I mean I would bet more on the jockey than the horse. Is VLNC CEO as capable as Eckert Pfifer?
I know people may get disappointed when I said the $60 for this year is zero chance. If there were a good chance there, wouldn't you expect to see a lot of insiders buying, particularly at $3, $4, $5? I have not seen any insiders buying the stock. Do the insiders know less about their own business and their market than we do? I won't bet my money on that.
I don't underestimate the effect of momentum investors, having seen the spectacular rise and fall of PRST, DNA, and ZITL. But fundamentals eventually prevail in every case.
Well, there goes my vacation. I was hoping to spend less time on the net. I will do more digging when I come back, in particular I want to talk to VLNC's competitors. I am sure everyone will claim that they have the best technology. So I guess the ultimate judgement will still be mine.
Regards,
Xingbo |
