re: what if the next SEMI orders number is down from September?
Exactly right. We saw a change in the pattern, a potential inflection point, with the month-on-month decline in orders last month. But it was only one data point, which could be noise in the signal. If orders decline again, then we have a pattern, and should expect a long period of declines. The question then becomes: do orders go down modestly (3-6 months of declines), and stabilize at a (historically high) level through 2002, or........do orders decline severely (for 6-12 months, down to 1998 trough levels)?
That is, do we get a "soft landing" in semi-equip orders? If we do, then the stock prices may now be near their bottoms. If we get a "hard landing", then the stocks still have a ways to fall.
In any case, sentiment is bad enough that the turn in the stock prices will take a while. If we bounce here at 40.5, then we have a double bottom, formed by the October and November lows. But we haven't bounced yet, and those bottoms are too close to each other, so I don't think it means much.
I am not buying LEAPs yet, still firmly on the sidelines, still just watching. |
