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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: pgerassi who wrote (128050)	11/10/2000 4:24:20 PM
From: jcholewa	Read Replies (2) of 1571088

> The actual probability of 500 tails in 2,000 tosses is 500!1500!/2000! far more than 1 in 2^2000. > 1 in 2^2000 is for the chance that the first 500 tosses are tails and the last 1500 tosses are heads, > or simply any single sequence of 2000 results. Hmmm. Lemme test that out with a smaller sample set. If F represents the number of flips and T represents the precise number of Tails, you're saying that the probability of getting T tails on F flips is T!(F-T)!/F! Smaller Dataset: one tails on three flips. T=1 F=3 The actual answer should be: (THH + HTH + HHT) out of (TTT + TTH + THT + THH + HTT + HTH + HHT + HHH) or three out of eight According to your formula, the answer comes out to: 1!(3-1)!/3! = 2/(32) = 2/6 = 1/3 You seem to be correct in that I made a mistake, but I believe that you may have made a mistake, too. However, I suspect your answer was much closer than mine. :) Hmmm ... I suspect that the denominator is indeed 2^2000. I just ignored the numerator, which is -- uh -- the number of combinations that you can have of T tails in F flips. Can we possibly revise this formula so that it's easier for me to comprehend? -JC PS: What about F!/[(T!(F-T)!)*2^T] ?

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