I can't see any rally until the presidential mess is resolved, and in fact I see things getting much, much worse. I think if Gore would come to his senses over the weekend and issue a statement that he will honor the vote, the markets would rally sharply, but I don't see that happening. In fact I don't see him honoring the vote if he loses. Instead I see prolonged litigation and forum shopping ahead, and perhaps no president determined prior to the end of the year or even later. If that happens, we could have a bone fide crash, and your 2500 target could easily be breached and passed.
At the current time I think that have achieved a constitutional crisis that will not easily be resolved. I don't care who the winner is because I don't think it will matter in the long run, but I do think it is critically important that the process be honored. You can't have a republic if all concerned don't respect and obey the process. If people didn't like the ballot in Palm Beach, they had ample opportunity to complain prior to the election, when it could have been fixed. Now there is no fair way to fix it, so the Doctrine of Laches applies. The fact is that you can't change the rules after the fact simply because you don't like the outcome. But then, maybe you can, in the modern US. Nothing is sacred any more, including our democractic process. But without a process we really have only anarchy and dictatorship, no different than say Milosevic.
Yes, we definitely have a major crisis that worsens every day. What if Bush is declared President and Gore supporters refuse to recognize the validity of government? What if Gore is declared President and Bush supporters refuse to recognize the validity of government? In the US we depend on voluntary obedience to government to pay taxes, etc. If that breaks down, we will have no country left. Humpty Dumpty can easily be broken, but can he be put back together? Each day the cracks grow wider, and the liklihood of something more serious increases.
I am saddened and horrified by what is happening, and I certainly hope this gets resolved quickly before it ends in disaster.
Carl |
