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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (78571)	11/10/2000 10:01:04 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

GC; Gold & the ESF George; the ONLY thing anyone needs to see to know the role of the ESF in the Price of Gold; was that link to the derivative positions of JP Morgan, Chase, Deutsche et al - that showed their short/derivative position exponentially multiply directly into the Sept 1999 Gold Spike. These derivative positions were beyond anything any individual bank had ever done - off the chart leverage/derivative risk in a single commodity in an incredibly short time frame and in a commodity; gold - of whose physical delivery to close out those shorts would & could potentially create the "mother of all short squeeze" in one of the most speculative & volatile of all commodities. That was a historic, unprecedented derivative move and no one ever answered why ? Remember that Kuwaitt loaned out nearly all of their physicall bullion ? And one of the banks; I think it was JP Morgan; shortly after that Sept 1999 intervention/supression of the Gold Rally; moved their entire Gold Trading Dept overseas to London to avoid US Banking oversight... Is the ESF the only problem Gold has ? - no; but the ESF is one of Golds greatest problems and Gold is one of the ESF's greatest problems... The supression of the Price of Gold allowed the US to pull off one of the grande illusions of all time - the simultaneous record Account Deficit & King Dollar. Supressed Gold allowed the US to point to gold prices & create the illusion that $30 Oil was not and would not be inflationary, nor could the wage & benefit pressure and consumer spending be inflationary; because the Price of Gold was not reflecting it...it created a safe haven environment for all that foreign investment in our currency, debt & equities. The Fed must now "walk down" King Dollar as it is creating stress fractures in foreign economies & currencies; as well as decimating US Corporate profits. Greenspan will simultaneously remove the excess speculative margin leverage from the US Equity Markets as the Dollar gets "walked down" and the Gold Derivatives imho; will be slowly unwound into that "walk down" moving Gold to it's fair value of $325-$350 which will support XAU 120+. As Greenie "soft lands" the US Economy he also softens Crude Oil Demand which softens Crude Prices and removes some inflationary pressure from the US Economy. The entire question is can he pull this one off... if he slips and the Dollar "walk down" - is not fast enough & triggers a global event - then Gold spikes. If the Dollar collapses too fast - Gold spikes. If he is successfull in slowly "walking down" the Dollar - Gold rises slowly & steadilly to fair value... We're seeing that the Euro is going to be supported. We see that the US Dollar at these levels is destroying US Corporte Profits and is creating the next "Global Crisis" and it can not sustain itself with our current account deficit - something has to give, if not explode... We've seen what JP Morgan, Chase, Deutsche et al have done via the ESF - we saw what happened in Sept 1999 and we see the present derivative positions that these banks have - it can NOT be sustained. Gold served its purpose for the ESF - and what is manipulated must be unwound...those banks can NOT maintain that derivative exposure - the only question; is can Greenspan allow them to unwind it in an orderly fashion. Gold is going up; it's only a matter of how fast & how high... Got Gold ?

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