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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (128128)	11/11/2000 1:33:35 AM
From: Ali Chen	Read Replies (1) of 1583867

Andreas, OT<Let's look at an easy example. We have four flips and want to get the probability of..> I don't belive that 4 is an "easy example" to verify an asymptotic formula, especially when I admitted that I don't remember those Pi factors involved :) <For great n (2000) we can approximate this distribution with the gaussian distribution..> For n=2000 the expected value is 1000. Now please estimate the probability of getting the expected value within +-sigma. Not "exactly" 1000 (who cares), not "at least", but the "expected outcome" of an experiment. For a random experiment, the result will be within 3sigma in 99% cases, or whatever. You have the right formula, integrate it and find limits that contain 99% of the whole distribution. You already have said that 1100 is below 1%. Therefore it is 99% confident that the result will be somewhere between 901 and 1099. Or plus-minus 10%, as Scumbria originally suggested without any calculations. Am I missing something again? Regards, - Ali

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