Comdex Gates Interview (2):
Gates: "We Still Need to do More to Make Computers Easier"
Daily: Can XML succeed beyond what Java has accomplished?
Gates: Well, the great advantage of XML over Java is that it still gives people a choice of any of the new languages that come along, and of mixing and matching code, whether it's in Java or C or Visual Basic - and yet still dealing with information in a common way. So, yes, I think XML will succeed beyond Java, because it really is a lingua franca for the Internet age.
Daily: The "universal canvas" - the idea that you never leave your browser, even for creative work - sounds marvelous. But are users ready for the idea of little or no traditional multitasking?
Gates: The universal canvas is key feature of a new and far more natural user experience we aim to deliver to customers with .NET. A key benefit of the universal canvas is that you don't have to launch new applications for each task, so it actually offers a much more seamless computing and communications experience. At the same time, the universal canvas takes advantage of the traditional Web interface, which most people are now familiar with.
Daily: More broadly, it seems that many or most business organizations aren't prepared to take advantage of technology that already exists. As you look into the future do you expect that gap to grow? How do you address the human/organizational obstacles to the effective use of technology?
Gates: I'm optimistic that the gap is closing, and that we will continue to close it. We still need to do more to make computers easier and more intuitive to use, and to give them the intelligence that will make them much better at supporting you at work, at school and at home. Part of that will come about through changes in the types of interface we use. But computers must also work more intelligently on your behalf-by, for example, proactively filtering e-mail and integrating your schedule with those of colleagues and family; by enabling businesses to offer products and services in ways that let their customers customize them according to their needs; by constantly monitoring your privacy and security. To do this, every computer and device needs to be able to connect proactively, seamlessly and intelligently - one of the core goals of .NET. It's a vision of a world in which everything that can think will link.
Daily: What Microsoft platform or application do you see as having the greatest potential in the .NET world?
Gates: As we get further down the road with .NET, it's clear that it will transform almost every aspect of computing. I can't think of a single product or service it won't impact and, in many cases, revolutionize.
Daily: Whistler promises to evolve the operating system to amazing places. But alpha testers recently said the user interface needs a lot of work. What are proving to be the most difficult challenges for Whistler?
Gates: In the early beta timeframe our focus is on delivering the reliability of Windows 2000 to the consumer, offering improvements to the business user, and incorporating some of our new .NET technologies. Work on the user interface will continue as the testing process progresses.
Daily: When will we see a Whistler release candidate or final?
Gates: It's still too soon to say exactly - our focus is on ensuring that we deliver the highest quality product. We expect that the final version of Whistler will be available in the second half of 2001.
Daily: What excites you most about Microsoft's artificial intelligence research? What's the most interesting challenge in AI today?
Gates: There is so much amazing work going on in AI at Microsoft that it's hard to be selective. We're making exciting advances that will give PCs the ability to process contextual information in order to make intelligent guesses about a user's goals or situation. This builds on work to develop more robust vision systems, more accurate speech recognition, and effective natural language processing.
AI also has a crucial role in reducing information overload. Getting exactly the right information to users at the right time, no matter where they are, is an incredible challenge. It requires software that can understand the urgency of messages, and which constantly learns about users' preferences by understanding how they work with their e-mail, schedules and so on. One day we will provide people with "personal information agents" - automated digital assistants that can review multiple sources of messaging and information, and which understand the constantly changing value of information to people. So your PIA would know whether a specific message warrants disturbing you in a meeting.
Our researchers are also pursuing a vision where users and computers collaborate to reach a better understanding of the user's goals. If the computer is uncertain about what it is that a user wants, it should know how to ask and acquire feedback, either linguistically or graphically. As part of this research, our researchers are studying how people collaborate with each other on projects, to get a better understanding of how computers might collaborate with users.
Daily: In 1997 you suggested that Microsoft's foray into the media business soon would account for at least $2 billion in annual revenue. As chief architect, have you revised your views on this? Is the newspaper business more resilient than you thought?
Gates: Well, we never intended to go into the newspaper business. Three years is a lifetime in the high technology industry - just look at the evolution of the Web since 1997. And it's become painfully clear that simply supplying content is not by itself a viable business model. But there are incredible opportunities in changing the way in which content is delivered. That's where we see our core role - in developing new delivery technologies, not in competing with existing content providers. We're starting to see the fruits of that effort with e-books, and will eventually see the same thing happen with e-magazines. And digital delivery is already changing the face of the music business, and fuelling the debate about intellectual property.
Daily: Everywhere we look we see PDAs, smart phones and other digital tools, not to mention multi-purpose game consoles. Again: is the death of the PC imminent?
Gates: Well, PC sales are still incredibly strong and look like staying that way. But what we're seeing is a gradual evolution of the PC. Most of the devices you mention still link up with a PC, either directly or wirelessly, and many of them draw on the flexibility of PC software to get their job done. And we're seeing PC technology power everything from cutting-edge PDAs (for example, Pocket PCs) and dedicated gaming consoles (like Xbox). But for most people, the PC or something very like it will continue to be the primary way they do e-mail, play games, access the Web, organize their lives, draft documents and so on. Because the PC does a lot of things very well - just try writing long e-mails or surfing the Web on the screen of a Web-enabled cell phone or pager. The PC is a bit like the automobile and the TV - just as they have survived by being the ultimate all-round transportation and streaming-media technologies, the PC will survive because it is the ultimate all-round computing technology. To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of its death are greatly exaggerated. |
