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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.990.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: Maverick who wrote (18616)11/11/2000 1:50:48 PM
From: jamok99Read Replies (4) of 275872
 
Maverick and JC -

Thanks for the summary of the CC - I have a couple thoughts about the consequences that the delay of 1.5mhz represents:

1. The *last* thing in the world AMD needs is lowered credibility. I didn't think it could get much lower, but there you have it. Another opportunity to change their image with analysts (and businesses/server markets - who wants to take a chance on an unproved company whose word can't be relied on? AMD seems to be following Intel's lead in vapor-launches/delays - duron infrastructure, SMP, 1.5 ghz, etc.)turned to their own disadvantage.

2. While it's nice that Dirk Meyer thinks a 1.2 gig Athlon will compete with a 1.5 gig P4, the average consumer doesn't go that far into the numbers - only droids like us. Clear leads are what AMD needs to establish itself (best if it were both in product availability and speed), and this is clear as mud.

3. Both Intel and AMD seem to be in a race to see who can bumble-f*ck their way to the finish line last. One possible, and damaging, outcome is that both companies 'lower-down' performance to meet the expectations of analysts and the street (as manifest by today's stock valuation), reinforcing analyst's impressions that they were right all along. The firm belief that most of us on this thread had, that AMD was an undiscovered and unfairly discounted gem, the truth of whose value would become undeniably clear as they blew-away the myopic forecasts of the street, itself gets blown away in the process. The perception (fact?) that we are in a slowing growth environment for pc's sure doesn't help the probabilities of this scenario becoming fact.

4. The good news - the effects of this mostly self-inflicted damage would seem to be already priced into the stock - so the one positive is that downside risk is probably limited - it's hard to imagine the stock with a pe of 4 - but not hard to imagine that it could have a pe of 8-9 if performance/promises continue to suffer, and we end up at the bottom of the semi cycle.

EDIT - Jerry was true to his word this time - he *said* he'd have some 'big surprises' for us towards the end of this year!
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