Scott,
<If I've read your table correctly, Klic is one of only two stocks showing a YOY decline in estimated earnings (and Klic's is by far the worst).>
Actually, I think there are 2 others, COHU and EGLS, but who's counting.<gg> The point is as you noted, KLIC has taken by far the largest percent "hit". A little better table to compare estimates is shown in Post #114.
<either the estimates for Klic are unbelievably off on the low side or, and this is likely closer to the case, all of the other estimates haven't caught up(down) with the 'reality' that Klic is seeing.>
This is very possible. During the last few weeks, as documented in previous posts, the trend for "next yrs" estimates have been down, but the magnitude has been relatively small. This latest data, as of Thursday, had the biggest decrease yet. Taking out GSNX, which had no estimate for "next yr" (1.78) this week and the KLIC reduction of 1.31 from last week, the remaining stocks, AMAT(-0.06), ATMI(-0.02) CMOS(-0.22), HELX(-0.04), KLAC(-0.10), LRCX(-0.18), NVLS(-0.05) and TGAL(-0.08) added up to -0.75, much less than KLIC all by itself. It should also be noted that SMTL had an increase of 0.22, the only stock to have an increased "next yr" estimate. Taking all 31 stocks together (omitting KLIC and GSNX), the net decrease in next years estimate is 0.53, a very small number. In summation, at the bottom of the table on Post #114, this years estimate was up 1.23 percent and next years estimate was down 5.74 percent. Removing KLIC and GSNX would greatly reduce that percent decrease, however.
<I believe the continuing pounding of the sector suggests that we're about to witness significant downward revisions in FY2001 earnings estimates throughout the industry so that, once again, the sector 'catches down' to Klic.>
As the next few weeks play out, this will be interesting to watch what happens. Both the SEMI and SIA organizations are predicting a very robust sector(s) for the next 2 to 3 years. The "market" seems to be predicting a greatly slowing economy(including the semi sectors) with possible recession - and maybe even depression??<gg> Somewhere along the way during the next many months, the "rubber is going to meet the road" and we will find out who is right - it will probably be somewhere in-between the 2 scenarios.
Best Regards,
Don W. |
