Either way, I wouldn't trust IMF forecasts they are usually wrong.
Mike,
I am curious why in one of your articles you use IMF reports to bolster your claims, but now you say they are not to be trusted?
I am curious about all of this gloom and doom talk. I have stated 2200-2500. However, I warned of an impending crash at 3828 9/21 to our entire field in public, without hedging that call. I wonder where this disaster lingo comes from.
First of all, foreign capital leaving the American bond markets is a ludicrous proposition. Where else do they have to go? Europe cannot raise rates with anemic growth, and the ECB's attempt to bolster the Euro has failed. So, the dollar is one of the strongest currencies in the world right now, and likely to strengthen further. No money is leaving Treasuries. I am a full-time Treasuries trader and I can tell you the recent massive rally in Treasuries belies your arguments. If anything, more money is flooding in.
Please state how current conditions are worse than the Fall of 1998, with Russia defaulting on its debt and the massively hedged Long Term Capital very nearly causing a massive financial crisis. We are nowhere near that now.
Again, why bring the fever pitch of disaster talk now? Where were you at Naz 4200, 3800 and even 3500? I do not recall hearing such dire predictions from you then.
I would caution everyone here against following this line of commentary. It is typical of a near-bottom. Time and time again we have seen pundits crawl out of the woodwork during a panic to exacerbate the crisis so that shares may be taken on the cheap. Don't buy it. 1999 was a rally simply far too far too fast, and the economic slowdown is directly tied to the Fed overcooking rate hikes. They will have to cut and fairly soon. They miscalculated. Inflation was always under control. Now we reap what they have sown, which is a moderately slowing economy. They will soon have fingers pointed their way and do not wish to be responsible for recession. They will cut and quickly, when that becomes apparent. Not now, but next year, yes, I do believe they will be forced into action.
As for stocks that are way up from their levels 12 months ago:
1. CSCO +25%
2. ORCL +119%
3. JNPR +264%
4. JDSU +38%
5. SDLI +244%
6. SUNW +68%
7. BRCM +91%
8. HGSI +277%
9. VRSN +35%
10. BRCD +210%
Some pretty fat rallies, even after this huge pullback. The stock market is simply re-evaluating which companies should be participating in the going forward of the greatest economic expansion in the nation's history. This is a natural evolution.
Would you please dispense with the disingenuous and belated disaster talk. I would be more inclined to believe your words if the facts you marshal were a bit more logically tied together, and your dire warnings had been made 2-7 months ago, and not now, when the panic is already underway.
Sincerely,
Olivier L. F. Asser |
