You said:
I am curious about all of this gloom and doom talk. I have stated 2200-2500. However, I warned of an impending crash at 3828 9/21 to our entire field in public, without hedging that call. I wonder where this disaster lingo comes from.
My reply:
I told people last December in my newsletter that the stock market probably crash in 2000 because Greenspan pumped extra Y2K liquidity in the markets and would take it out in the first quarter. I sold my long term holdings in February and had people told me as I a nut. Went short first week in November and within a fee days called the crash. Once market broke 3,500 I warned them we would go to 3k and the market was completely broke down. So what though - what is important is the future. And the accuracy of any of our past statements means nothing about that.Please state how current conditions are worse than the
You wrote:
Fall of 1998, with Russia defaulting on its debt and the massively hedged Long Term Capital very nearly causing a massive financial crisis. We are nowhere near that now.
My reply:
No we aren't in an epic crisis. I'm not saying we are. I'm saying that we have economic imbalances that could create such a crisis in the future. In short Greenspan created a credit and stock market bubble to patch over the LTCM, Russian loans, Asian loans, Latin America loan crisis in Oct 1998. He artificially created demand in our economy so that these foriegn countries could create a trade deficit with our country and hopefully pay off some of those loans they had from the international bankers which they weren't able to after enacting IMF "reforms". We may be paying the price for this madness in the future.
You said:
I would caution everyone here against following this line of commentary. It is typical of a near-bottom. Time and time again we have seen pundits crawl out of the woodwork during a panic to exacerbate the crisis so that shares may be taken on the cheap. Don't buy it. 1999 was a rally simply far too far too fast, and the economic slowdown is directly tied to the Fed overcooking rate hikes. They will have to cut and fairly soon. They miscalculated. Inflation was always under control. Now we reap what they have sown, which is a moderately slowing economy. They will soon have fingers pointed their way and do not wish to be responsible for recession. They will cut and quickly, when that becomes apparent. Not now, but next year, yes, I do believe they will be forced into action.
My reply:
I haven't appeared out of the woodwork, but have been negative all year, although this thread is new. You don't seem to be saying this is a near bottom - you claimed that Nas is going to at least 2,500. Now you say it is a near bottom because this thread exists. Which is it?
As for stocks that are way up from their levels 12 months ago:
1. CSCO +25%
2. ORCL +119%
3. JNPR +264%
4. JDSU +38%
5. SDLI +244%
6. SUNW +68%
7. BRCM +91%
8. HGSI +277%
9. VRSN +35%
10. BRCD +210%
I don't think these are strong stock. Many of them such as ORCL and JDSU have completely broken down. You couldn't point a gun to my head and get me to buy them as investments. You might be able to buy them on a gap down bottom and sell them the next day for a good 10-20% gain, if that happens - but I wouldn't hold these bubbles as investments. |
