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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (35442)	11/13/2000 9:48:38 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) of 42787

Great stuff, AA, thanks. I was looking at SPX and COMPX charts over the weekend, and both look like bear flag/pennant breakdowns. So how big is the pole? I think it's easy on the COMPX -- 1200 points; this has been the first real consolidation since the Sept. 1 peak. So depending on where you mark the breakdown point (anywhere from 3400-3000), the COMPX has downside potential to 1800-2200. Sure is funny seeing a "2" handle on the COMPX. FWIW, a 61.8% retracement of the 1357-5132 run would be 2799; in Fib terms, that would be the bulls' last stand. The SPX is a little trickier -- it had a fairly sizeable rectangle in the 1420-1460 area, so the pole on that flag is anywhere from 115 points to 230 (the 1530) top. The breakdown on the flag is clear (1390) -- so the SPX has downside potential to either 1275 or 1160 -- anyone's guess which. The SPX log trendline break is interesting; the classical TA interpretation would be that a close 2% below that line (1335) would spell the end of the bull market. All the above offered with a big "BWDIK." ;-) Good trading, and thanks for your insightful posts. Paul

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