Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 230.16

-4.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (18847)	11/13/2000 1:00:18 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Pravin, <I don't remember anytime lately where AMD has exceeded their ASP guidance -- in fact, they have been coming up short. > Absolutely true. <For people to speculate that AMD is sandbagging their ASP forecast is to disregard everything we have seen over the last year. > I agree that there may not be much of sandbagging here. I think AMD revised ASPs in lieu of faster than expected P4 ramp. I would expect to see strong Q1/Q2 ASPs (i.e., > $90) and weaker Q3/Q4 ASPs (probably less than $90 unless there are some commercial volume wins by that time that can skew the mix in favor of Athlons and latops chips compared to Durons) <80% 1 GHz yield at Dresden may be true, ...> I can understand people could have underestimated Dresden bin-splits but I don't think anybody should have questions on Dresden bin-splits. AMD management knows better than reporting blatantly wrong information. <... but from my personal observations, less than 50% of Athlon actually sold at retail are at 1 Ghz (higher than 1 Ghz has not even arrived in any measurable quantity at retail). > There are two factosrs at play here: AMD over the last year has constantly downbinned its product and not all the production is from Dresden. I think the first one is the dominant reason. Without corporate design wins, the higher speed grades simply cannot be absorbed by the consumer market. The sales/marketing team at AMD screwed up BIG time to not land a single major NA corporate SKU even after a full year of product advantage. This is a real SHAME. I should say that there is no good explanation for lack of any 1.2G SKUs from Compaq/HP. For some reason these guys are far behind Gateway (and even Micron now). I think this cannot be explained by the advantages of being direct. There is some other issue here and I would not be surprised if it has to do with protecting ASPs on the corporate systems. Chuck

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