MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 652.53

-1.5%

Nov 20 4:00 PM EST

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To: Les H who wrote (62390)	11/13/2000 1:06:14 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Les, I don't get anywhere near 4 standard deviations from 20 weekly on Nasdaq in March, though close in '98. On the dailies I see a crossing on April 4 (Wack Tuesday). Appears to have actually closed there once or twice over the last fifteen years... Also, what's the percentage probability for a 4th standard deviation? My references go only to 3 - already supposed to comprehend 99.73% of the data, no? BTW, doesn't look like such a good snapback formula in any event (weekly, daily, near miss or actual cross) -- I emphasize don't see enough data to draw reliable conclusions, but seems to graph more like the rubber band breaking than stretching.

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