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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 72.10+1.4%Nov 10 3:59 PM EST
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (43403)11/13/2000 1:49:16 PM
From: chic_hearne  Read Replies (2) of 77397
 
However, we were talking about statistics. Statistics tell us that everything regresses to the mean. They also tell us that probabilistically speaking, it is highly unlikely that a data point outside 2 standard deviations from the mean will occur. You can't really argue with that. It is a mathematical fact. Can a deviation occur? Absolutely. We saw it to the upside and we may see it to the downside.

Of course, with any statistical model you must assume all things are equal. First of all, the Naz should've never got this high so the mean is way above where it should be. Second, the fundamentals are deteriorating and things were priced to perfection. IMO, you are making an argument like this: Mark McGwire hits a homerun 1/10 of the time he bats, or 10%. In a homerun derby of 100 swings, it's logical to assume he will get 10 homeruns. But today there's a 50 mile per hour wind coming to homeplate from the outfield. Under these condition maybe he gets lucky and hits one even though this goes against the statistics, same with the Naz.

For a person with a 10 year horizon, this looks like the mother of all buying opportunities.

It's pretty early in the game to be doing that.
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