NOV 13 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - lower midrange, imperfect HAMMER
SPX - borderline oversold region, imperfect HAMMER
OEX - borderline oversold region, imperfect HAMMER
NAZ - oversold, long-legged DOJI
NDX - oversold, SPINNING TOP with longer UPPER SHADOW
VIX - 31.68, upper midrange, BEARISH ENGULPHING(inverse to market)
CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .83
Per my short-term technicals the overall market is still basicly in the oversold region. The response to the CLASS 1 BUY signals were timely and the overall market did bounce off of the intraday lows which produced some candlestic reversal signals/hints, such as the HAMMERs/DOJIs.
Im not saying that the market will move up strong tomorrow, but I do suspect that todays intraday's lows has a fair chance of holding up for the rest of this week, and there should still be some more upside. Of course subject to the election recount.
Unfortunately there significant negatives were made today. The NAZ/NDX did go significantly lower intraday and the NAZ did close below 3000 which is a significant psychological support.
Another important negative is the breakdown of the BTK(biotechs). The BTK lost about 90 points intraday with the intraday low at 618. In one day it broke below 2 previous troughs, and clearly formed LOWER LOWs. Also the "3-WHITE SOLDIERS" on the BTK was negated.
In the past I have mentioned that there were 3 MAIN MANIA subsectors: the INTERNETS/ SEMICONDUCTORS/ and BIOTECHS. The internets and semiconductors have already been beaten up and just recently the biotechs were still near their all-time highs. With today's firm negative performance in the BTK, it is a sign that the biotechs may be starting to follow the path, to some degree, of the INTERNETS and SEMICONDUCTORS.
If the market does rally this week, please keep in mind the statistical issue that the probability is high that declines of greater than 7% gets retested.
In my personal mutual fund account I did not make any changes due to the selling towards the end of trading. In our WEBSITE fund account I did prepare a post to open a USPIX position, but due to my stupidity again I goofed, so will leave it to LEE. |
